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Axios Future

Axios Future

This site uses cookies to enhance your reading experience. By using this site, you consent to our use of cookies.Okay1 big thing: The wages mysteryThe U.S. economy is confounding: Three months from the longest expansion since such data began being tracked 170 years ago, the economy keeps pumping out strong job growth, and has now pushed down unemployment to a 50-year low. Yet it is delivering only middling wage growth — lower, for instance, than the last expansion in the 2000s. That has been an enduring mystery, especially amid month after month of ultra-low jobless figures over the last year. What’s happening: In its latest report, the Labor Department today said April joblessness was at a drum-tight 3.6%, the lowest since 1969. Normally, such a number would be considered to well satisfy the 4% minimum needed to show “full employment,” which takes into account people changing jobs as a matter of course.But in the current expansion, government and private economists say there is room yet for jobs to get even tighter. The presumed continued slack in the economy may explain why wages grew just 3.2% in April. That’s double the approximately 1.6% inflation rate over the last year, providing workers a real gain. But economists point out that wages routinely grew by more than 4% on an annual basis during the expansion in the 2000s.Joseph Brusuelas, chief economist at RSM (whose numbers are behind the above chart), says that such low monthly jobless figures should deliver greater wage gains. “Nominal wage growth is modest at best compared to previous business cycles late in the expansion.”This does not mean economists are unhappy with today’s jobs report. On the contrary, they’re mostly elated by the higher-than-expected 263,000 jobs created in April. They also by and large treated the wage gain as something to crow about. But this is because economists are largely trained to look at wage gains as a key contributor to inflation, which they regard as the No. 1 thing to guard against.Very few economists treat the greater ability of workers to buy goods and services as a fundamental measure of economic health. The political environment is starting to change that. Decades of largely flat wages and the loss of economic stature across U.S. cities and counties are thought to be a contributing factor in widespread alienation and institutional mistrust.Economists are also becoming more comfortable with wage gains because inflation does not appear to be taking off.What’s next: Andrew Chamberlain, chief economist at Glassdoor, says these economic conditions are an argument for the Fed to keep interest rates flat and not tighten them.”The Fed should let the economy burn hot,” he tells Axios. “This is one of those times historically where workers at the bottom can win gains.”Wage growth for the lowest-paying jobs are seeing the highest gains. Detailed figures are available only up to March. But in the first quarter, the lowest quartile saw a 4.4% wage increase year on year. Among the steepest gains have been bartenders (a 9.6% increase on average over the last year), retail cashiers (4.6%) and bank tellers (4.6%).A red flag: In the first few months of the year, job listings are usually up at Glassdoor, but Chamberlain says that this year they are down. This contradicts the narrative of continued job growth, and could suggest slower pace ahead. “It definitely shows that there has been some hesitation by some employers to hire,” he said.2. The hunger for meatless meatIllustration: Aïda Amer/AxiosRacing to catch up with millennial food preferences, Big Fast Food is pulling in as many alternatives to the old-school cheeseburger as it can get its hands on.Chicken, turkey, and salmon are popping up on drive thru menus.So, too, are brand names from the newly popular wave of imitation beef made of plants.Axios business editor Dan Primack writes: Investors are paying attention. Faux-beef maker Beyond Meat saw its shares leap 163% yesterday on its first day of trading (and another 1.5% today), marking the best IPO day performance since before the financial crisis.The bull case: Impossible Foods, a rival to Beyond Meat, recently got onto Burger King’s menu, and there is widespread speculation that Beyond Meat will strike a similar deal with McDonald’s or Wendy’s.Former McDonald’s CEO Don Thompson is on Beyond Meat’s board, having invested through his VC firm Cleveland Avenue.These products aren’t just for vegetarians and vegans: Impossible CFO David Lee tells Axios that around 90% of his customers consider themselves to be carnivores.The bear case: More than a dozen states are considering banning companies from using the word “meat” to describe burgers or sausages made from plant-based materials or in labs.This is the cattle ranchers lobby vs. the grocery lobby, and could present a particular challenge for a company with “meat” in its actual name.There have been similar legal skirmishes over words like “egg” and “milk,” with “chicken” most likely to follow as Tyson prepares to launch its own alternative protein product this summer.Go deeper: Scoop: Tyson Foods sells stake in Beyond Meat amid rising tensions3. What you may have missedPhoto: Richard Baker/In/Getty4. Worthy of your timeSpaceX Falcon 9 rocket launch, March. Photo: Jim Watson/AFP/GettyRise of the young-old society (Camilla Cavendish — FT)How to watch tomorrow’s SpaceX launch (Axios)Banking gets disrupted (The Economist)No NAFTA rewrite unless tariffs go (Burgess Everett, Marianne Levine — Politico)Chewbacca, RIP (Brittany Vincent — MTV)5. 1 odd thing: Jack Dorsey, lifestyle iconPhoto: Drew Angerer/GettyJack Dorsey, CEO of Twitter and Square, has enough money to dine like a king every day until he dies — but he eats only once a day during the week, and not at all on the weekends.Kaveh writes: He’s also into silent mediation, cryotherapy, and drinking lemony saltwater in the morning. And his followers eat it up. Jack Dorsey is “Silicon Valley’s answer to the mega-influencer Gwyneth Paltrow,” writes the NYT’s Nellie Bowles.One positive word — or tweet — about a product can leave it backordered for weeks, Bowles writes.The maker of a “near-infrared sauna” that Dorsey once mentioned on a podcast found his demand shoot through the roof. “He legitimizes it,” the sauna-maker told Bowles.But his public endorsement of not eating for several days in a row has drawn criticism: What’s carefully calibrated “biohacking” to the uber-rich of Silicon Valley might be called an eating disorder elsewhere.Amanda Mull, who has written about the dangers of the extreme diets that Dorsey and other tech execs espouse, tweeted last month: “I think it’s genuinely very dangerous for someone as influential as he is to preach the virtues of not eating until you hallucinate!”
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$25,000 Bitcoin Price Next for Perma-Bull Lee after Ringing Crypto Winter Dead

$25,000 Bitcoin Price Next for Perma-Bull Lee after Ringing Crypto Winter Dead

By CCN: Fundstrat CEO Tom Lee says the ‘crypto winter’ is finally over, offering 13 solid reasons to back up his claim. According to the bitcoin perma-bull, there’s nothing but blue sky between here and his $25,000 price prediction.If he’s right, then bitcoin has bottomed for this cycle and we have now entered a bull market. Lee’s 13 signs touched on everything from technical analysis, Wall Street involvement, bitcoin metrics, and generally positive sentiment.After a disturbing pullback to ~$6,200, #Bitcoin back >$8,000 further cementing positive trend intact.As we said a few weeks ago, Consensus 2019 @coindesk was to prove whether crypto winter is over……confirmed pic.twitter.com/M8ni4g2YvX— Thomas Lee (@fundstrat) May 19, 2019Bitcoin’s “disturbing pullback” to $6,200 just a blipLee said that bitcoin’s recent flash crash to $6,200, which was triggered by a huge sell order on Bitstamp, was a blip. And the subsequent rebound to $8,000 strengthened the case that bulls were back in control of the market.Tom Lee believes bitcoin has bottomed at $3,200 and begun the road to recovery. Source: CoinMarketCapAs Lee points out in his 13 reasons, negative news stories no longer seem to dent the market. Citing recent events that ought to have shaken the markets, he said:“Stable market reaction to controversy around Bitfinex/Tether and NY Attorney General’s court order alleging undisclosed transfer from Tether’s reserves to Bitfinex in order to cover up mishandled funds.”Lee: Consensus 2019 confirms the end of crypto winterLee said the final proof of bitcoin’s rebound lies with the Consensus conference. The event, run by Coindesk, is often cited as a catalyst for price action, known as the “Consensus Pump.”The bitcoin price rallied to a ten-month high of $8,000 as the conference kicked off. It was the catalyst Lee needed to confirm that crypto winter is finally over.Bitcoin transactions surge and accumulation beginsAmong the other reasons for Lee’s conclusion is the volume of bitcoin transactions. He wrote that on January 23rd:“On-chain transactions per day turn positive YoY, the first time since January 2018 (consistently).”#bitcoin transactions reaching ath’s again🚀 pic.twitter.com/YMfQIQir1C— Sakura ¥ (@carryyen) March 28, 2019He also pointed to volume on over the counter (OTC) markets, hinting that brokers were reporting 60 – 70 percent increase in new client activity. At the same time, wealthy investors were accumulating bitcoin, not just on OTC markets, but in Grayscale’s flagship Bitcoin Investment Trust.It’s in the charts…Additionally, Lee points to a slew of technical analysis that confirms bitcoin’s upward trends. The most significant of which is the so-called “golden cross” when bitcoin’s 50-day moving average crossed the 200-day moving average. It historically indicates a bull market, not just in crypto, but in financial markets generally.Ladies & Gents… The Golden Cross!Bitcoin’s 50-day moving average (gold) crossing above her 200-day moving average (blue). 📈This is yet another sign that we’re back in a🐂market. 🚀🌛 pic.twitter.com/VK1PSsOYIB— Mati Greenspan (@MatiGreenspan) April 23, 2019Lee also cites his own firm’s Bitcoin Misery Index which ticked back up to 2017 levels.Bitcoin price to soar to $25,000?With crypto winter finally over, Lee may double down on his $25,000 bitcoin price prediction. The perma-bull originally predicted that bitcoin would hit the milestone by the end of 2018. Even when it failed to materialize, he remained optimistic, saying $25,000 is a fair price for bitcoin.“Strangely, I just think that’s a good, fair value for bitcoin, but the timing of that’s going to be difficult. Bitcoin has had 70 percent pullbacks four times already in its 10-year history, and it has recovered to new all-time highs every time. So to me, it’s resilient.”At what price will see FOMO from those who gloated about 90% crash in $BTC?Military term, SWAG (scientific wild-assed guess).My SWAG is $10,000 is price that causes FOMO from those who saw #bitcoin as dead forever. POLL: At what price do we see FOMO?— Thomas Lee (@fundstrat) May 12, 2019For now, the psychological barrier remains at $10,000. According to a Twitter poll conducted by Lee, his followers believe this is the price at which new investors will FOMO into cryptocurrencies. 
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JPMorgan Tries Fear-Mongering in Attempt to Sabotage Bitcoin Price Rally

JPMorgan Tries Fear-Mongering in Attempt to Sabotage Bitcoin Price Rally

JPMorgan Tries Fear-Mongering in Attempt to Sabotage Rowdy Bitcoin Price RallyJPMorgan strategists are warning investors that bitcoin, in its current value, is overpriced. | Source: ShutterstockBy CCN: JPMorgan doesn’t love bitcoin. The bank – the United States’ biggest financial institution by assets – has been historically pessimistic about the flagship cryptocurrency, so just when bitcoin prices started going through the roof, it decided to crash the party with a dire warning.#Bitcoin prices diverge from intrinsic value, carrying echoes of late 2017, JPM says. pic.twitter.com/DImDoSMv8L— Holger Zschaepitz (@Schuldensuehner) May 17, 2019JPMorgan makes yet another effort to sabotage bitcoinThe crypto winter gave JPMorgan’s bitcoin bears reason to cheer earlier this year. The Wall Street firm’s analysts were bandying about a $1,260 bitcoin price target in January, warning HOLDers that they should prepare for more pain in case the crypto winter continued.Bitcoin’s impressive price rally has made those analysts eat their words as the digital currency is now trading over $7,900. But JPMorgan says that the current bitcoin price is reminiscent of 2017’s boom-bust pattern when the cryptocurrency’s market price had surged ahead of its intrinsic value and then crashed spectacularly.JPMorgan strategists wrote in a note (via Bloomberg):Over the past few days, the actual price has moved sharply over marginal cost. The divergence between actual and intrinsic values carries some echoes of the spike higher in late 2017, and at the time this divergence was resolved mostly by a reduction in actual prices.The note tells us that JPMorgan is trying to rain in on bitcoin’s parade, giving bears fodder by telling them that bitcoin’s current price doesn’t reflect its true value. But there’s a flaw in the JPMorgan has arrived at the “intrinsic value” of bitcoin.Don’t get carried away by JPMorgan’s fearmongeringJPMorgan has arrived at bitcoin’s intrinsic value by treating the digital currency as a commodity. The Wall Street firm estimated the cost of “producing” a bitcoin using variables such as electricity expenses, hardware efficiency, and electricity expense.But it seems like JPMorgan forgot that the current bitcoin price rally has a lot more legs than the last one, and it doesn’t make sense to value it based on the cost of mining. That’s because bitcoin is proving to be a solid alternative investment at a time when the stock market is in turmoil, thanks to the US-China trade war.In a period where: —political tensions escalate between US and China, —global equity markets fall sharply—VIX largest spike in many months—global yield curves flatten/invert#bitcoin has RISEN and >$6,000Crypto showing its value as an uncorrelated asset.— Thomas Lee (@fundstrat) May 9, 2019As it turns out, the Chinese are dumping their currency in favor of bitcoin to escape the yuan’s painful decline.Meanwhile, institutional investors are piling into bitcoin as the digital asset is believed to be better than gold as a safe-haven investment. Asset management firm Morgan Creek Digital’s CEO, Mark Yusko, estimates that the price of bitcoin could reach as high as $500,000 if the cryptocurrency is valued like gold:So if we get the amount of value in total Bitcoin market value or network value equal to gold, that’d be about $7.4 trillion divided by 21 million coins, although there aren’t really 21 million left, and you get around $400,000 a coin, maybe $500,000 a coin. Now, when does that happen? It’s probably over a decade or maybe even more.A survey carried out by Fidelity Digital Assets has found out that almost half of the institutional investors that it had surveyed see a place for digital assets like bitcoin in their portfolios.We asked: what do institutions really think about #digitalassets? https://t.co/3Lq5h5ITbT— Fidelity Digital Assets (@DigitalAssets) May 2, 2019So, JPMorgan’s claim that the price will crash just because it is trading above the intrinsic value, which has been arrived at by calculating mining costs, is nothing but a farce.It’s ‘Worth Nothing’: Jamie Dimon Takes Another Shot at Bitcoin https://t.co/junawpXqNa— CCN.com (@CCNMarkets) September 22, 2017But bitcoin has proved that it has value because of its real-world use cases. So don’t be surprised to see JPMorgan’s famed analysts eating their words once again when the price shoots higher.Click here for a real-time bitcoin price rally. About The AuthorHarsh ChauhanHarsh Singh Chauhan has a wealth of experience evaluating publicly-traded companies across several verticals, including technology, oil and gas, retail, and consumer goods. He is a syndicated author whose articles have been published on reputed online platforms across the U.S., Europe, and India since 2011.This article was edited by Samburaj Das.
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